(How to find Waldo.)
Things are not always as they seem when you try to find your top grain bids. In fact, it’s often like trying to find Waldo. Long hours of concentration, sorting through heavy crowds and, unfortunately, sometimes it’s just too late, so you just say, ‘the hell with it!’
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Weekly Market Recap:
It's no new news to you, but all rail lines leading to the Port of Vancouver are closed due to wash outs and mudslides from the heavy rains that B.C. received. My heart goes out to all those affected, especially the farmers who are completely flooded out. Lots of unknowns are still up in the air and there is heaps of speculation about when the railway will be back open and functional. I've heard everything to as little as a few days to a couple of months. Either way, this definitely threw us a curveball. The good news is that we don’t have a massive crop to export as we normally would and some companies are still able to ship out of Prince Rupert on the CN line (I believe they are Viterra, Cargill and Richardson Pioneer). Speaking with one grain merchant this week, his thought is that the down time shouldn't create a huge backlog but rather a small delay in movement. Let's hope he is right. I'm sure we will know more next week.
Deals of the week:
$19.00+/bu new crop canola, $13.00/bu CWRS, $10.00/bu oats
Canola: New-crop futures are making new highs! Old crop futures are mostly holding their ground with the nearby Jan. futures ending slightly lower this week but are still holding above $1,000/MT. It’s nice to see the markets holding up even after the rail lines to the West have been cut off. Looking at canola charts today the trend still remains up. Vegetable oil markets remain strong. We have low canola supplies. There is also the potential of weather problems/La Niña for South American crops. On the other hand, soybean oil has been trending downwards and our rail to the Port of Vancouver is down. For how long? is the million-dollar question. This may create delays in movement, which means delays in cash flow. So, if you require capital in the coming month or two, be sure to capture some nearby contracts.
Soybeans broke out to the upside earlier this week. Soybeans are being pulled higher as soybean meal soars higher due to the lack of supply of lysine in China. (A feed additive to increase the protein content). South American weather will remain paramount in the coming months to see where soybean prices go next. The crops are off to great start down there. Will La Niña come into play and hurt their forecast of a huge crop? Only time will tell...
Wheat: Chicago and Kansas wheat markets have been hot and hit new highs this week! Wet conditions have created problems for seeding winter wheat and thus lower acres are put in the ground than anticipated. Wheat demand has picked up with Algeria and Egypt making purchases. Russia is also talking about limiting their exports come February.
Minneapolis wheat has been underperforming and is the weakest of the three. It failed to follow the other two higher. Depending on how long the rail lines are cut off in the West, we could see basis widen right out for nearby months. Again, if you need cash soon, make sure you look at securing some sales. We simply do not know what next week's news will bring!
In the big picture though, world wheat stocks are shrinking and I've heard that it will take more than just one more year to build up supplies to comfortable levels. This will be supportive for new-crop wheat prices.
Barley: Barley bids are holding strong if not getting just a tad bit stronger. Seen malt barley bids pick up strength too. Corn futures have been rallying supporting barley prices. Feed grains are just hard to buy. Lots of corn is moving across the border our way. Barley prices are expected to remain strong. One caveat could be that large volumes of wheat and barley were destined for export out West so let’s hope the rail lines get up and running sooner rather than later so it doesn't drag down prices.
Peas: Yellows pea bids look to have picked up a little more strength this week from line companies.
Oats: Recovers losses with some futures reaching to new highs this week. Most of our oats move to our partner to the south so the shut down rail in B.C. will have little to no effect on this market. The market is still trending higher. We have very limited supply. Cash bids gained some strength this week.
Around the farm: Winter is here! Did you get it, too? The cold blistering winds and snow came falling down late Monday and dropped about four to six inches of snow to blanket the ground. All bus routes were closed both Tuesday and Wednesday here. We already take every backroad to the school so we simply put the truck in 4-wheel drive and brought them to school anyhow. I love them, but I can’t be having snow days in November, lol! My daughter turned 7 years old on Tuesday so of course we had a little celebration. I also have a new niece born yesterday! I now have five nieces (no nephews)! Currently, I am the only sister that has boys, and, well, you can bet that my husband is sure proud of himself! As for the farm stuff, I am working on marketing grain (as always), sourcing wheat seed for spring and just paying the bills. Of note: I've now seen a few reminders from grain buyers saying watch your canola as they are reporting some starting to heat.
Check your bins and have a great weekend!